Volpe's Early Thanksgiving Showdown Breakdowns - 4 Deep Sports


Volpe’s Early Thanksgiving Showdown Breakdowns

2022 Thanksgiving Showdown Game 1
Bills at Lions 12:30 PM EST 
Bills -9.5, o/u 54.5

LAST UPDATED: Wednesday 1:30 PM EST

Josh Allen is 2-0 on Thanksgiving Day and has a very juicy matchup against the Lions’ horrid defense. Stacking him with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is my favorite plan. I especially like Davis, as he has one of the best matchups of the week against backup corner Amani Oruwariye. I also really like Dawson Knox because the Lions rank 30th against tight ends and have given up seven TDs to the position. The Bills’ defense looked much better with Poyer back in the lineup and they should get back corner Kaair Elam. The Bills held Nick Chubb to 19 rushing yards last week and, as 9.5-point favorites, I am not going Jamaal Williams this week. In a game where the Lions will trail, St. Brown should be in a position to have plenty of targets.

Passing Matchups:

  • Lions rank 28th, allowing 262.2 passing yards per game
  • Bills rank 19th, allowing 220.8 passing yards per game

Rushing Matchups:

  • Lions rank 31st, allowing 153.7 rushing yards per game
  • Bills rank 8th, allowing 106.6 rushing yards per game

First Tier: ALLEN, Diggs
Second Tier: St. Brown, Gabe Davis, Goff
Best Values: Justin Jackson, Brock Wright
Less Of:  Isaiah McKenzie, Jamaal Williams
More Of: Allen, Davis, Knox, Singletary
Prediction: Bills 34-21

  • Gabe Davis OVER 58.5 receiving yards
  • Knox OVER 37.5 receiving yards

2022 Thanksgiving Showdown Game 2
Giants at Cowboys 4:30 PM EST 
Cowboys -10, o/u 45.5

The Giants are giving up 5.4 YPC, so it doesn’t matter if it is Pollard or Elliott in there, Dallas should have a field day on the ground. As for the Giants, Wandale Robinson is out for the year, so their talent at the WR position is not good, although there are some values at receiver. Considering the OL issues in protection for the Giants, you can expect a lot of Saquon. Given both teams will be running the ball, I like the under.

Passing Matchups:

  • Giants rank 15th, allowing 211.8 passing yards per game
  • Cowboys rank 1st, allowing 174.5 passing yards per game

Rushing Matchups:

  • Giants rank 25th, allowing 135.9 rushing yards per game
  • Cowboys rank 26th, allowing 136.1 rushing yards per game

First Tier: Prescott, Lamb, Barkley, Pollard
Second Tier: Zeke, Slayton, Schultz, Cowboys DST
Best Values: James Jr., Hodgins, Cager, Malik Davis
Less Of:  Daniel Jones, Gano, Golladay
More Of: Prescott, Lamb, Pollard, Barkley, Cowboys DST, Zeke
Prediction: Cowboys 27-14

  • Zeke OVER 44.4 rushing yards
  • Pollard OVER 19.5 receiving yards

2022 Thanksgiving Showdown Game 3
Patriots at Vikings 8:20 PM EST 
Vikings -2.5, o/u 42.5

The full breakdown and showdown rankings for the night game will be posted by 2 PM Eastern on Thanksgiving afternoon.

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