Volpe's 1/7/23 NFL Projections - 4 Deep Sports


Volpe’s 1/7/23 NFL Projections

DraftKings Projections: Saturday, January 7th 2023

Team Pos. Name Notes Projection Price Value
KC QB Patrick Mahomes The Raiders are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to QBs. He is looking to secure the #1 seed. Oh, and he needs 430 yards to set the record for most passing yards in a season. 24.4 8400 2.90
JAX QB Trevor Lawrence The Jags are in the playoff hunt and Lawrence had his best game of the season against the Titans in week 14, scoring 36.4. The Titans are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs. 22.5 6100 3.69
LV WR Davante Adams He needs five receptions to get to 100 receptions for the 4th straight year and 57 yards to top 1500 receiving yards. The Chiefs have allowed the most fantasy points to WR1’s. If he gets a full game he will be the top WR, but he seems a little risky because the Raiders have been eliminated. He could be taken out late if the game gets away from them, but perhaps they want to establish his connection with Stidham and play spoiler to the Chiefs 18.6 8800 2.11
LV QB Jarrett Stidham The Chiefs are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to QBs (21.7). He looked impressive last week against the best defense in the NFL (49ers). His price is appealing and I like him more than Dobbs. Ownership will impact how much I have of him. 17.7 5400 3.28
TEN RB Derrick Henry The Titans can win the AFC South with a victory. He had 121 yards and a TD in week 14 and was rested for last week’s game. He practiced in full and the Titans will try to get to the playoffs through him. Dobbs’ passing ability should give him a little more space than he has had with Willis. 16.9 8000 2.11
LV RB Josh Jacobs Questionable with a hip/oblique. Has 160 yard cushion for this year’s rushing champ. Still managed 19.5 points against the 49ers’ stout D and he had 154 rush yards in week 5 against the Chiefs. The Raiders have been eliminated, so his usage is in question. 15.5 7400 2.09
KC TE Travis Kelce The Chiefs want the AFC #1 seed.  The Raiders are allowing five catches for 49 yards to TE’s, but have only allowed ONE TD to the tight end position since their game against Kelce in week 5. However, in week 5 Kelce scored FOUR TDs against LV. He has been consistent with 7-10 targets over his last 8 weeks and he has not scored a touchdown over his last 5 weeks. He is not a slam dunk 15.1 7900 1.91
TEN QB Joshua Dobbs The Jags are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to QBs. He looked good against the Cowboys’ defense and should be a little better in his second start. I do expect a lot of Henry (25 carries), especially near the goal line. I like Stidham’s passing ability better at almost the same price and Mahomes/Lawrence have amazing matchups. 15 5100 2.94
KC RB Jerick McKinnon JM scored two touchdowns in three of his last four games! However, he has not topped 10 touches in either of his last two games. Doing all of his work in the receiving department, especially in the red zone. The Raiders are allowing six receptions for 52 yards to running backs per game. He is hot, but very touchdown dependent. 14.6 6300 2.32
JAX RB Travis Etienne Jr. The Titans rank 6th against the run and they rested some defensive players last week. The Titans should be close to full strength on D while fighting to win the division. He had 17 carries for only 32 yards in week 14 against the Titans. His usage has been high and he did total 100 yards in three straight games. 13.8 6700 2.06
JAX TE Evan Engram The Titans allow the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends and he had 11 for 162 and two TDs against them in week 14. Schultz had seven for 56 and two TDs last week against the Titans. His price and matchup make him a must have for me. 13.7 4500 3.04
JAX WR Christian Kirk The Titans allow the most points to WRs. Kirk has not scored in any of his last six games and he had five for 45 in week 14 against Tenn. Kirk needs 91 yards for a $500K bonus. Although, the Jags have a lot on the line so this won’t be a priority and he has only topped 91 yards 5x out of 16 games. His last 3 weeks he has had tough matchups: Texans, Jets, Cowboys 13.3 6200 2.15
KC RB Isiah Pacheco The Raiders are 29th against the run, so he has a chance to surprise. He has at least 15 touches in seven of his last eight games. If this game were to get out of hand, he will see even more volume. 12.5 5600 2.23
JAX WR Zay Jones Titans rank 32nd against WRs and he produced eight receptions for 77 yards in their week 14 matchup. The Titans have allowed the most points to outside wide receivers and the most points in deep passing. He also needs 98 yards for a $500K bonus. 12.3 5000 2.42
KC WR Juju Smith-Schuster He struggled his last two weeks, as he also did in their week 5 matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed the third most points to slot receivers on the season. HOWEVER, new slot Corner Tyler Hall has been impressive over his last four weeks and PFF rates him as the 2nd best cover corner without a snap minimum. Juju is reasonably priced, but risky and his stacking with Mahomes will be popular. 10.1 5400 1.87
LV TE Darren Waller He has been outsnapped in all three games since his return by Foster Moreau. Waller has managed five targets in two straight games and has scored in two of his three games. The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three straight games. 9.6 4400 2.18
KC WR Kadarius Toney Played between 16-19 snaps the last two weeks. He caught all four of his targets. His playing time is limited, but he is a nice GPP option. Skyy Moore is OUT so he will definitely see some more playing time. Mecole Hardman is a game time decision which muddies the water, but he would be limited in his first game back. 9.1 4000 2.28
TEN WR Treylon Burks The rookie had four receptions for 66 yards last week. He is a good value. However, he will see at least 50% of Tyson Campbell, who is #7 graded corner, according to PFF. 8.8 4200 2.10
TEN WR Robert Woods He scored last week and had five for 49 against the Jags in week 14. He has only topped 49 yards twice this season. 8.4 4100 2.05
KC DST Chiefs DST This defense has played much worse on the road. Stidham was impressive last week against the 49ers, so unclear how he performs after the Chiefs look at his film. Defenses are a toss up, but if they are chalky, I will avoid them. 8 3200 2.50
JAX WR Marvin Jones Jr. He is the forgotten Jags receiver with all of the incentive buzz around Kirk/Zay. He had six catches for 61 yards last week. He is a contrarian GPP option in a stack with Lawrence, or on his own because of his price. The Titans rank 31st against WR3 position, I like him a lot as a GPP play 7.7 3600 2.14
LV WR Mack Hollins he is still playing nearly every snap for the Raiders. He had 3 for 40 last week and has a good matchup this week 7.8 4300 1.81
LV WR Hunter Renfrow Played between 43-47% of the snaps in his three weeks back from injury. The Raiders are out of contention, so his playing time is a bit unknown. He is cheap, but will match up with Chiefs 1st round pick Trent McDuffie, who played very well in consecutive weeks, especially against Jerry Jeudy. 7.5 3800 1.97
TEN TE Chig Okonkwo  Since week 8 the Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the tight end position. He did have six for 45 and a TD against the Titans in week 14. However, he only played 26% of the snaps last week while splitting playing time with Swaim and Hooper as per usual. 7.3 3300 2.21
JAX DST Jaguars DST This defense held the Texans and Jets (bad weather) to three points each in back to back weeks. They have also managed 12 fantasy points or more in four straight games (nine turnovers). I do expect a lot of Henry and less passing, where they have managed to force pressure and turnovers. 7 3400 2.06
KC WR M. Valdes-Scantling He had six for 90 in their first matchup. These corners are not good and have been beat up pretty bad, so he has a large GPP play, but he has only had more than three catches once over his last 11 games. The Raiders have allowed the 8th most points on deep passes. Skyy Moore is OUT . 6.9 3900 1.77
TEN DST Titans DST At full strength, they have a dominant D-Line. They rested some players last week in an attempt to win the AFC South this week. Their secondary ranks near last in the league and Trevor Lawrence torched them in week 14. 6 2800 2.14
LV TE Foster Moreau Played 79% of the snaps last week even with Waller’s return. He had three targets in two straight and is a nice cheap option. The Chiefs have allowed four touchdowns to TEs over their last three games. 5.5 2800 1.96
LV DST Raiders DST They are as cheap as you can get and defenses are always a crap shoot. Yes, facing Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense isn’t ideal, but their price can give you a little extra wiggle room and this will make you different. 5 2200 2.27
TEN TE Austin Hooper Had a season high in both receptions and yards against the Jags in week 14 (5 for 68). Since week 8 the Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the tight end position. 4.3 2700 1.59
KC WR Justin Watson Only has two combined catches over his last four games. The outside is where the Raiders have been beaten and they don’t have many options there. 4.2 3000 1.40
JAX RB JaMycal Hasty 10 rushes and six receptions in last week’s blowout over Houston. It will be tough to run on the Titans and Etienne will get the majority of snaps. Hasty will go back to 16-18 snaps and 3-4 touches. 4.1 4600 0.89
TEN RB Hassan Haskins Henry is ready to go, so his touches should be limited and his price is high to be in play. 3.5 5000 0.70
TEN RB Julius Chestnut Henry is back and Haskins is still ahead of him, he can’t be played. 3.3 4300 0.77
LV WR Jamal Agnew Had three for 36 in their first matchup. He hasn’t played more than 18 snaps this entire season, but he did play 17 last week. A nice min flex option. 2.6 3000 0.87
JAX RB Ameer Abdullah He didn’t have a touch last week. The Raiders are out of contention, so they may see what rookie Zamir White can do. 2.4 4200 0.57
TEN WR N. Westbrook-Ikhine He did have eight targets against the Jags in week 14 and is playing about 70% of the snaps. Cheap GPP option, but hasn’t had more than three targets in any of his last three games. Tre Herndon ranks 108th of 123 corners in the NFL. 2.5 3300 0.76

Mecole Hardman is OUT!

Must Have: D. Henry, E. Engram, Zay Jones
QB: All 4 have great matchups. Fading Dobbs.
GPP Sleepers: M.Valdez-Scantling, Marvin Jones, Westbrook-Ikhine
Great Matchups:

Difficult Matchups:

Mahomes, Lawrence, Adams, Engram, Zay Jones, Okonkwo

Treylon Burks, Hunter Renfrow, Travis Etienne,

Incentives: Christian Kirk & Zay Jones

NOTES: The Raiders are the only team not playing for something meaningful which makes Devante Adams and Josh Jacobs risky.

The Chiefs can clinch the one seed with a win. If they lose and the Bills win, the Bills will win the one seed.

The Jaguars and Titans are playing to win the AFC South to make the playoffs, loser goes home.

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