Volpe’s 1/29/23 NFC Championship Showdown
Sunday Afternoon Showdown 1/29/23
49ers @ Eagles 3:00 PM EST
Eagles -2.5, o/u 46
LAST UPDATED: Sunday 9:42AM EST
Brock Purdy will play a talented defense for the second week in a row. Throwing against Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be difficult for him as they shut down Daniel Jones last week. Kyle Shanahan will make it easier for him by throwing to McCaffrey, Kittle and some quick plays with Deebo. On the other side of the ball the Eagles will struggle to run the ball against this run stuffing defense. They also have been successful as stopping the TE position and scrambling from QBs. We will see how healthy Jalen Hurts shoulder is today because he will be forced to make some throws and I think we will be succesful
Key Injuries: SF QUES: E. Mitchell (RB), A. Thomas (CB)
Weather: 49 degrees, 10-16 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Notes: Avonte Maddox will return to the lineup as slot corner, Tevin Coleman is on the active roster
QB Matchups:
- SF: The 49ers rank 9th, allowing 15.7 fantasy points per game to QBs
- PHI: The Eagles rank 4th, allowing 15.0 fantasy points per game to QBs
RB Matchups:
- SF: The 49ers rank 1st, allowing 16.6 fantasy points to RBs
- PHI: The Eagles rank 15th, allowing 22.9 fantasy points to RBs
Rankings:
| Jalen Hurts | I dialing him back a little bit because of his shoulder injury and the SF defense. The 49ers have been limited QB rushers. He has a good matchup passing and hopefully he can sneak one in at the goal line | 22.6 | 11000 | 2.05 |
| Christian McCaffrey | Scored a TD last week for his 8th consecutive game. Eli Mitchell is dealing with a calf injury. I do think in order to avoid passing on the Eagles secondary getting CMC the ball out of the backfield is important so hopefully he can rack up the catches. | 19.8 | 11400 | 1.74 |
| AJ Brown | SF has allowed the 6th most receiving yards. He was quiet last week and only had 3 for 22 and did not look happy on the side line. I think they try to get him going early. | 17.0 | 9200 | 1.88 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF will get creative with getting him the ball. If Eli Mitchell were to miss, I can see him getting 6-8 carries. He has a tough matchup on the outside, but they will move him into the slot, which is the best matchup against this Eagle defense | 15.1 | 8400 | 1.80 |
| Brock Purdy | The Eagles have limited QBs this entire season and really gave Daniel Jones problems last week. I trust Kyle Shanahan’s system, but you can’t expect big numbers from him, especially after only putting up 9.4 last week | 14.9 | 9400 | 1.59 |
| DeVonta Smith | SF has allowed the 6th most receiving yards and Smith has been getting it done every week. | 13.9 | 8800 | 1.58 |
| George Kittle | The Eagles haven’t allowed a TE TD over their last nine games. He showed up big against Dallas last week, who have also been good against TEs. He will extend plays and get the gritty yards | 10.5 | 7800 | 1.31 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | He is pretty cheap for a WR, but in a tough matchup on the outside with Slay | 9.8 | 5800 | 1.74 |
| Dallas Goedert | 49ers have been great vs TEs this entire season, Schultz went five for 27 yards last week, but he did score | 9.4 | 6800 | 1.40 |
| Miles Sanders | 49ers rank 1st against the run and he hasn’t eclipsed nine fantasy points in any of his last five games. His probability of success is very low, given Gainwell and Scott are in a rotation behind him | 9.1 | 6200 | 1.47 |
| Robbie Gould | Four for four in each of his two playoff games. He is a strong option | 8 | 4400 | 1.82 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | SF is allowing a league-best 61 yards per game in a split backfield. I do like him to see a few targets | 7.9 | 4800 | 1.65 |
| 49ers DST | The 49er defense forces a ton of turnovers. They have forced at least two turnovers in nine of their last 10 games | 7 | 3800 | 1.84 |
| Eagles DST | The Eagles defense is averaging 5.5 sacks over their last seven games | 7 | 3600 | 1.94 |
| Jake Elliott | He is tough to trust given Philly’s aggressive style of offense | 7 | 4200 | 1.67 |
| Eli Mitchell | Questionable. 11 touches in their first playoff game and 14 last week. Philly has only allowed 3.8 yards per carry over their last seven games. They did allow 84 yards to Barkley and Breida | 6.9 | 5200 | 1.33 |
| Jauan Jennings | Very cheap for the SF slot receiver who will get the best matchup, although Avonte Maddox is expected to return this week. Richie James had seven for 51 last week | 4.8 | 2400 | 2.00 |
| Quez Watkins | His cheap price keeps him in play. He is playing about 1/3 of the snaps, but Pascal did play more than him for the first time this season | 4.4 | 1800 | 2.44 |
| Boston Scott | He has been involved their last three games, but SF is great against the run and he doesn’t see targets out of the backfield | 3.9 | 3200 | 1.22 |
| Jordan Mason | If Mitchell were to miss, he could see a handful of carries | 2.9 | 200 | 14.50 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | Hasn’t had more than two touches over his last seven games, but he is capable of scoring a TD | 2.6 | 1200 | 2.17 |
| Zach Pascal | Played more snaps than Quez last week, which was the first time this season | 2.5 | 800 | 3.13 |
| RayRay McCloud | Only played two snaps last week and eight the week before | 2.1 | 400 | 5.25 |
Best Values: Jennings, Watkins, Aiyuk, Pascal
Less Of: Goedert, Sanders, Scott, Aiyuk
More Of: Hurts, McCaffrey, Brown, Smith, Deebo, Kittle, Gould, Jennings, Defenses
Prediction: Eagles 24-20
Core: Hurts, McCaffrey, Brown or Smith
Bets:
- AJ Brown OVER 4.5 receptions
Follow me on twitter @Mvolpe33
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