Volpe’s 1/22/23 Divisional Showdown Breakdowns
Sunday Divisional Showdown Game 1
Bengals @ Bills 3:00 PM EST
Bills -5.5, o/u 48.5
LAST UPDATED: Saturday 1:03PM EST
The Bengals are going to have some serious offensive line troubles. However, Joe Burrow grades the best in the NFL in quick passes which will be the game plan today. For the Bills, I really like Allen/Diggs and the Bills passing game. Both of the Bengals outside corners are poorly ranked and allow 14.5 yards per reception. The Bengals play a lot of single high safety, so Gabe Davis is also in play.
Key Injuries: OUT: A. Cappa, J. Williams (OT), L. Collins (OL)
DOUBTFUL: T. Flowers (CB), J. Phillips
Weather: 35 Degrees, 80% chance of light snow (1 inch) from 4-6PM, 5 MPH Winds
Passing Matchups:
- Bengals rank 23rd allowing 227.9 passing yards per game
- Bills rank 13th allowing 213.1 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Bengals rank 9th allowing 109.5 rushing yards per game
- Bills rank 4th allowing 100.9 rushing yards per game
Rankings:
| Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| Josh Allen | The Bengals allowed Tyler Huntley to have a big game last week, but they allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to QBs in the regular season (15.2). Allen turned the ball over against the Dolphins but was able to connect on deep passes last week | 24.2 | 11800 | 2.05 |
| Joe Burrow | Joe Cool is missing three starting linemen so he is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. I have to limit expectations giving the injuries on the road against a defense who has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to Qbs | 20.5 | 10800 | 1.90 |
| JaMarr Chase | has had at least 12 targets in 5 straight games. He has a great connection with Burrow and even if he is shadowed by Tre White, White has been beatable | 18.9 | 11400 | 1.66 |
| Stefon Diggs | I would take Diggs against any of these corners. He will see more of Apple and Taylor Britt on the outside. Back to back 7 reception games at home | 17.7 | 11200 | 1.58 |
| Tee Higgins | Tee will match up with the combo of Dane Jackson/ Kalir Elam with Chase expected to see a lot of White if not shadowed by White. I think he has an opportunity for a huge day and he had a few catches early in the game that was canceled | 13.9 | 7800 | 1.78 |
| Joe Mixon | He has been splitting time with Perine and is missing key pieces of his offensive line. I’m close to fading him, but part of me thinks they might try to establish the run given their situation and trying to neutralize the pass rush | 13.8 | 8800 | 1.57 |
| Gabe Davis | will see the most of Eli Apple who was burnt by Demarcus Robinson two weeks in a row. He passed 100 yards last week for the first time since week 5. | 13.3 | 6400 | 2.08 |
| James Cook | saw 50% of the attempts while playing from ahead and is a favorable price | 11.6 | 4600 | 2.52 |
| Devin Singletary | could he see more opportunities receiving if they should trail? | 9.8 | 7000 | 1.40 |
| Tyler Boyd | Taron Johnson is a solid slot corner who will see a ton of Boyd. Boyd did score on the first drive of cin/buf before their first matchup was canceled. | 9.2 | 5400 | 1.70 |
| Dawson Knox | Knox has scored in 5 straight games and the Bengals rank 15th allowing 11.6 ppg to TE’s. Mark Andrews had 5 for 73 against the Bengals last week | 9.1 | 5200 | 1.75 |
| Tyler Bass | He is familiar with the cold weather and is on a high powered offense so he is in play for me | 8 | 4200 | 1.90 |
| Hayden Hurst | Bills rank 3rd in allowing points to TE’s (9.1) | 7.9 | 5000 | 1.58 |
| Samaje Perine | Perine has seen at least 30 snaps(41%) over his last three games. He should see 4-7 touches | 7.1 | 4400 | 1.61 |
| Bills DST | Definitely in play for me given the offensive line struggles and running game challenges for the Bengals. A top defense at home | 7 | 3800 | 1.84 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | He was trending in the wrong direction even before his injury. Additionally, Mike Hilt is a solid slot corner | 6.9 | 4800 | 1.44 |
| Bengals DST | This defense has forced turnovers and Allen had three of them last week. Allen was also sacked 7 times. Given their cheap price they are in play as well | 6 | 3200 | 1.88 |
| Evan McPherson | The Bills have allowed the 2nd fewest points to kickers this season (6.5). McPherson hasn’t kicked more than a 41 yarder over his past 6 games | 6 | 4000 | 1.50 |
| Khalil Shakir | he has played at least 25% of the snaps even with McKenzie active. He played well last week so he should have earned a few opportunities | 4.1 | 1200 | 3.42 |
| Cole Beasley | I’m not sure how you rotate three slot receivers, but he had 5 targets without McKenzie last week and scored | 3.6 | 1800 | 2.00 |
Best Values: Shakir, Cook, Beasley, Perine
Less Of: Singletary, Hurst, Mixon, McKenzie
More Of: Allen, Chase, Diggs, Davis, Burrow, Higgins,
Prediction: Bills 28-24
Core: Allen, Diggs or Davis, Chase
Bets (37-30):
- Davis OVER 3.5 receptions
Sunday Divisional Showdown Game 2
Cowboys @ 49ers 6:30 PM EST
49ers -4, o/u 46.5
Key Injuries: OUT: J. Peters (OL), A. Thomas (CB) QUES: J. Kearse (S),
Weather: 50 Degrees 10-12 MPH Winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Passing Matchups:
- Cowboys rank 8th allowing 208.3 passing yards per game
- 49ers rank 20th allowing 232.2 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Cowboys rank 22nd allowing 125.0 rushing yards per game
- 49ers rank 2nd allowing 79.2 rushing yards per game
Rankings:
| Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| Christian McCaffrey | The Cowboys rank 2nd in points allowed to opposing RBs (19.2). In a showdown slate he is still in play because of his volume. Additionally, the Cowboys have not allowed a receiving touchdown to a running back this season. | 19.5 | 11200 | 1.76 |
| Dak Prescott | The 49ers rank 9th against opposing QBs allowing 15.7 fppg. This secondary has allowed some points to the outside so pairing him with Lamb, Gallup or Hilton is a decent stack. | 19.4 | 11000 | 1.77 |
| CeeDee Lamb | They move him around and get creative enough to get him the ball in space. Jimmie Ward has been decent in the slot, but he did get beat last week | 19.1 | 10400 | 1.84 |
| Brock Purdy | He is coming off of the best game of his career and has at least 2 TD passes in 7 straight games. I believe he will continue to be successful, but if Dallas can shut down the run game and apply some pressure, he could be a let down | 18.3 | 9400 | 1.95 |
| Deebo Samuel | capable of taking it to the house anytime he touches the ball. He does project to see a lot of Diggs, but I trust Kyle Shanahan more. He should see at least 10 touches in this one. | 15.1 | 8200 | 1.84 |
| Tony Pollard | 49ers are 1st against Rbs in points allowed. Pollard is a special talent that has a better chance on the perimeter and in the passing game | 14.4 | 8400 | 1.71 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | Dallas has struggled with their corner opposite of Diggs. Dallas ranks 32nd against WR2s. Obviously very high on Aiyuk for that reason | 14.3 | 7200 | 1.99 |
| George Kittle | The Cowboys rank 2nd against opposing TEs. I am not high on Kittle today either. | 10.2 | 7600 | 1.34 |
| Michael Gallup | The 49ers have been beat in the receiving game and with extra attention to Lamb I think it will be Gallup or Hilton that has to come up big today | 10.1 | 5000 | 2.02 |
| Dalton Schultz | 49ers have been great agains TE’s this entire season. SF ranks 8th allowing 10.4 fppg | 9.1 | 5600 | 1.63 |
| Zeke Elliott | 49ers allow the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. I am off of Zeke today and hoping he doesn’t get a 1 yard TD | 8.8 | 6200 | 1.42 |
| 49ers DST | SF is very good at stopping the run game and tight ends which is a secret to the Cowboys success. They are certainly in play especially with Nick Bosa rushing the passer and no Jason Peters for Dallas | 7 | 4200 | 1.67 |
| Cowboys DST | Purdy hasn’t turned the ball over much, but this defense has caused problems with pressure | 7 | 4000 | 1.75 |
| Robbie Gould | The Cowboys allow the 3rd most fantasy points to kickers (9.4). I am fading Maher, but Gould is a strong play today | 7 | 3800 | 1.84 |
| Eli Mitchell | a woeful 9 rushes for 2 yards last week and the Cowboys have been good against the run. He is cheap so I will have some of him, but I don’t love him | 6.6 | 3000 | 2.20 |
| Jauan Jennings | Bland has been solid in the slot, but I think Jennings is a low owned GPP play | 6.4 | 4600 | 1.39 |
| TY Hilton | playing just as much as Noah Brown and has seen at least 4 targets in three straight games. I like him a lot for his price | 5.7 | 2800 | 2.04 |
| Brett Maher | After one of the worst kicking performances in history last week it is tough to endorse him this week. The Cowboys don’t trust him and the 49ers have allowed the fewest points to opposing kickers (5.3ppg) | 5 | 3600 | 1.39 |
| Noah Brown | snaps are trending downward and he hasn’t topped more than 18 yards over his last 4 games. He is very cheap for a dart throw | 4.8 | 2400 | 2.00 |
| RayRay McCloud | has gone two straight games without a target and will only see 8-12 plays | 3.4 | 1200 | 2.92 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | sees about 50% of the snaps and should see a target or two | 2.8 | 1600 | 1.69 |
Best Values: Hilton, Jennings, Gallup
Less Of: Zeke, Schultz, Kittle, Maher
More Of: Aiyuk, Deebo, McCaffrey, Lamb, Pollard, Hilton
Prediction: 49ers 26-18
Core: Lamb, Aiyuk, McCaffrey
Bets:
- Aiyuk OVER 52.5 receiving yards
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