Volpe’s 1/21/23 Divisional Showdown Breakdowns
Saturday Divisional Showdown Game 1
Jaguars @ Chiefs 4:30 PM EST
Chiefs -9.5, o/u 53
LAST UPDATED: Saturday 3:47PM EST
As of right now there is a 60% chance of snow at 5PM 70-80% chance of rain from 5-6PM
The Jaguars were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position to end the regular season, which is why Gerald Everett was one of my favorite showdown plays last week and he had six for 109 and a TD. They now have to figure out how to stop Travis Kelce. I’m sure they have tried to clean it up a little bit, but Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are must plays for me. I do like the Jaguars’ ability to pass on the Chiefs, so if the weather isn’t terrible, we could have a shootout. Ultimately, the offensive line advantage for the Chiefs, the elite matchup for Kelce, and the BYE week for the Chiefs, all lineup for a Chiefs easy victory.
Key Injuries: OUT: M. Hardman (WR).
Weather: 37 degrees, 5-7 MPH winds, 80% chance of rain
Last Matchup: Week 10: Chiefs 27-17
Passing Matchups:
- Jacksonville ranks 27th, allowing 239.3 passing yards per game
- Kansas City ranks 18th, allowing 220.9 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Jacksonville ranks 11th, allowing 112.1 rushing yards per game
- Jacksonville allows 4.1 yards per carry, which ranks 5th
- Kansas City ranks 7th, allowing 107.2 rushing yards per game
- Kansas City allows 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks 15th
Rankings:
| Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| Patrick Mahomes | the likely MVP faces the 23rd ranked pass defense according to PFF and his top connection Kelce has an elite matchup. The Chiefs have the biggest pass blocking advantage of the week as well. | 24.6 | 12400 | 1.98 |
| Trevor Lawrence | He has showed he can make things happen. He has a 55% passer rating while under pressure. I like Chris Jones & company to make it difficult for him. His points will likely come late. | 19.5 | 10400 | 1.88 |
| Travis Kelce | The Jaguars are terrible at covering tight ends and don’t have a LB that can cover him. The Jaguars allowed Gerald Everett to have a huge day last week and they were in the bottom three over the last six games of the regular season covering tight ends | 17.9 | 11000 | 1.63 |
| Travis Etienne | The Chiefs have allowed 6.6 catches to running backs which is the most in the NFL, but they rank 4th against RBs in the redzone. He hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times over his last 11 games. | 14.4 | 8800 | 1.64 |
| Jerick McKinnon | The Jags have allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs this season. (6.4pg). His usage and involvement in the redzone is appealing | 13.7 | 7400 | 1.85 |
| Christian Kirk | Sneed has been a great slot corner this year, but Kirk did have 7 for 86 against him in week 10. It appears rookie Trent McDuffie has played a lot of slot coverage over their last three | 12.9 | 8600 | 1.49 |
| Evan Engram | The Chiefs are allowing 10 PPG to the position over their last 10 games. He had 3 receptions for 14 yards in their last matchup. | 11.9 | 5800 | 2.05 |
| Zay Jones | with the Jaguars expected to be trailing he could see more targets than usual, but I lean towards Kirk as the better play | 10.5 | 6400 | 1.64 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | Best matchup in the slot against Tre Herndon, but Juju has been inconsistent | 9.8 | 7000 | 1.40 |
| Kadarius Toney | They have monitored his snaps this season but he is the most talented WR they have. JuJu has struggled as of late so I like his chances. Slot corner Tre Herndon has not been great | 9.1 | 5400 | 1.69 |
| Isiah Pacheco | JAX has been good against the run and McKinnon has been taking the touchdowns. I do like his low ownership in a rain game. He could surprise | 8.6 | 6600 | 1.30 |
| Marvin Jones | Teams haven’t been attacking the 3rd receiver against the Chiefs and he only had 1 for 33 in week 10 | 7.2 | 4800 | 1.50 |
| Chiefs DST | this defense has been playing well: forcing pressure, turnovers, and sacks. At home I expect them to play well | 7 | 4400 | 1.59 |
| Harrison Butker | Rain could be a factor but I like him at home with a lot of Chiefs points scored | 7 | 4200 | 1.67 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | He will see a lot of top corner Tyson Campbell. I am not him today, but he did score one of his two touchdowns of the season against JAX in week 10 | 5.8 | 5200 | 1.12 |
| Skyy Moore | Hardman is still out, and at $200, he is one of the best values on the board | 5.1 | 200 | 25.50 |
| Riley Patterson | We are looking at a similar trail game script as last week . On top of it he missed two fgs in week 10 | 5 | 4000 | 1.25 |
| Justin Watson | He will see a lot of Tyson Campbell. I’m not going this route today | 4.9 | 2000 | 2.45 |
| JaMycal Hasty | he played 23% of the snaps last week, but didn’t result in a touch. The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions to running backs this season so I do expect him to have a few catches | 4.1 | 1200 | 3.50 |
| Jaguars DST | They are cheap enough, but against a #1 offense on the road is tough. They did force 3 turnovers in week 10 in KC | 4 | 3200 | 1.25 |
| Noah Gray | Again, the Jags have been terrible against TEs, so he is a nice contrarian cheap option | 3.7 | 800 | 4.63 |
Best Values: Moore, Engram
Less Of: MVS, JuJu, Hasty,
More Of: Mahomes, Lawrence, Kelce, Kirk, McKinnon, Etienne
Prediction: Chiefs 31-21
Core: Mahomes, Kelce, Lawrence
Bets:
- Kelce anytime scorer (-155)
- Kelce first score (+550)
Saturday Divisional Showdown Game 2
Giants @ Eagles 8:30 PM EST
Eagles -7.5, o/u 48
Key Injuries: OUT: A. Maddox (CB). QUES: B. Graham (LB), L. Johnson (OT), NYG QUES: I. Hodgins (WR), A. Jackson (CB), F. Moreau (CB), J. Love (S)
Weather: 38 degrees, 3-6 MPH winds, 0% precipitation
Regular Season Matchups: Week 14: Eagles 48-22; Week 18: Eagles 22-16
Passing Matchups:
- Eagles rank 1st, allowing 179.8 passing yards per game
- Giants rank 1th, allowing 217.2 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Eagles rank 16th, allowing 121.6 rushing yards per game
- Giants rank 27th, allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game
Rankings:
| Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| Jalen Hurts | The Giants are mediocre against QBs and I don’t see them stopping him. | 23.6 | 11800 | 2.00 |
| Daniel Jones | The Eagles rank 4th against QBs, only allowing 15 FPPG. However, Daniel Jones is balling | 19.8 | 10200 | 1.94 |
| Saquon Barkley | The Eagles have been much better against the run, only allowing 3.9 yards per carry in the 2nd half of the season. He should see at least 15 carries and 4-6 targets and likely will punch one in | 18.7 | 11200 | 1.67 |
| AJ Brown | Should see at least 50% of the NYG’s best corner, Adoree Jackson, if not shadowed by him. He still managed four for 71 and a TD against Adoree in week 14 | 16.5 | 10800 | 1.53 |
| DeVonta Smith | Went seven for 67 in week 18 and five for 64, plus a TD, in week 14. The Giants’ corners aren’t very good, so he should have similar numbers | 14.4 | 9600 | 1.50 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | He has been the difference for the NYG offense. Scoring in five of his last six games, all of which he had at least four catches. He does face a tough Philly coverage: Bradberry is the 9th best cover corner, while Slay is 14th (PFF). I think he will be popular and might be a nice pivot to James, who has the better matchup in the slot | 14.1 | 6800 | 2.07 |
| Miles Sanders | The Giants have allowed 5.3 YPC this season. He was without Hurts for a couple weeks, which hurt his numbers. He could go under owned and is someone to keep an eye on. The RB rotation is worrisome and the Giants have allowed the 2nd fewest yards to RBs in the NFL. | 13.1 | 7800 | 1.68 |
| Dallas Goedert | On the season, the Giants rank 25th against tight ends. In week 18 against the Giants, he had six for 46. TJ Hockenson did have 10 for 129 last week against the Giants’ D. He has a very safe floor. | 12.9 | 6200 | 2.08 |
| Richie James Jr. | Has the best matchup for the Giants in the slot against Gardner-Johnson | 9.6 | 5200 | 1.85 |
| Darius Slayton | Will see the most of Slay and some Bradberry on the outside. He has underwhelmed in both games vs. Philly | 8.6 | 5600 | 1.54 |
| Jake Elliott | The Giants rank 28th against kickers, allowing nine FPPG. However, there is a video circulating of Elliott cheating and kicking off of an object in week 18, which, if anything, affects his confidence. He did make five FGs against the NYG in week 18 and two in week 14. | 8 | 4200 | 1.90 |
| Eagles DST | Has been one of the best defenses the entire season and they are coming off of a Bye week. Daniel Jones and Barkley are hot, but it is more a question if they can shut down the Giant receivers | 7 | 4400 | 1.59 |
| Daniel Bellinger | The Eagles are only allowing 8.3 fantasy points to tight ends this season. He hasn’t had more than five targets in a game this season. | 6.9 | 4800 | 1.44 |
| Boston Scott | 33% of the snaps in week 17 and 18. He is priced way up based off of his volume in week 18. I don’t see him having more than 4-5 carries | 6.1 | 4600 | 1.33 |
| Giants DST | This defense allowed 48 points in their first matchup in week 14 and have only forced two turnovers over their last four games | 6 | 3400 | 1.76 |
| G. Gano | One FG attempt in three straight games. In two games against Philly, he has one made FG and three XPs. Game script also comes into play here, and in order to upset the top seed, they will need to go for it | 6 | 4000 | 1.50 |
| Quez Watkins | He didn’t do much in either game against the Giants. He has seen five or six targets in five of his last seven, and he does have a good matchup in the slot. Deep GPP play | 4.6 | 3000 | 1.53 |
| Ken Gainwell | Likely to see between 15-20 snaps, as he did many times this season. He managed at least 3.4 points in six of his last seven. More of the receiving back, which the Giants rank 2nd in receiving yards to RBs | 4.5 | 2600 | 1.73 |
| Matt Breida | Barkley dominated the snaps as Breida played 21 snaps that resulted in three carries. He is cheap, but only has one TD on the season | 3.9 | 1600 | 2.44 |
| Lucas Cager | Played 33% of the snaps in their 1st playoff game. He did manage eight for 69 against the Eagles in week 18 without Bellinger in a meaningless game. | 2.9 | 1400 | 2.07 |
Best Values: Goedert, James,
Less Of: Bellinger, Scott, Gano, Slayton
More Of: Hurts, Jones, Barkley, Brown, Smith, Hodgins, Goedert
Prediction: Eagles 27-23
Core: Hurts, Goedert, James, Brown
Bets:
- TBD