Volpe’s 1/14/23 Wildcard Showdown Breakdowns
Saturday Wildcard Showdown Game 1
Seahawks @ 49ers 4:30 PM EST
49ers -9.5, o/u 42
LAST UPDATED: Saturday 930AM EST
The 49ers dominated both of their games against the Seahawks in the regular season. NFL history has shown it is difficult to beat a divisional rival three times in a season. However, in this situation, it is simply a bad matchup for Seattle. They have allowed the 2nd most points to running backs this season and San Francisco will look to pound the football with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. While on the other side of the ball, the 49ers rank 1st against the rush and have only allowed 61.6 rushing yards per game to the position. Seattle depends on their run game and they gave rookie Kenneth Walker 29 carries last week on their way to a victory over the Rams. The forecast is calling for rain, which can add some unknown and perhaps help Seattle.
KEY SHOWDOWN NOTES:
- Seattle ranks 32nd against tight ends and Kittle scored twice in their last matchup and has seven touchdowns over his last four games.
- Seattle ranks 31st against running backs. McCaffrey is near a must-have, but will be very highly owned. Elijah Mitchell is also a very strong contrarian play and top value.
Key Injuries: OUT: A. Thomas (CB). QUES: A.Armstead, J. Kinlaw, D. Greenlaw, SEA: A. Woods (NT)
Weather: 53 degrees, 8-13 mph winds, 70% chance of rain
Regular Season Matchups: 12/15/22 – 49ers 21-13; 9/18/22 – 49ers 27-7
Passing Matchups:
- Seahawks rank 13th, allowing 211.5 passing yards per game
- 49ers rank 20th, allowing 222.9 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Seahawks rank 30th, allowing 150.2 rushing yards per game
- 49ers rank 2nd, allowing 77.7 rushing yards per game
Rankings:
| Team | Pos | Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| SF | RB | Christian McCaffrey | McCaffrey draws a matchup against a defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs and he has scored in five straight games. | 19.9 | 12400 | 1.60 |
| SF | QB | Brock Purdy | Purdy has looked better every single week and his fantasy points show the same. He gets a prime matchup in the run game to open up play action passes. He has seven touchdown passes to Kittle over his last four games and the Seahawks rank last against TEs | 16.4 | 10000 | 1.64 |
| SEA | QB | Geno Smith | Hasn’t surpassed 17 fantasy points in his last four games. He faces a tough defense on the road in the rain. | 15.8 | 10200 | 1.55 |
| SEA | WR | Tyler Lockett | Lockett has put up double digits in 13 of his 16 games and has nine TDs on the season. He had seven for 68 in their last matchup and nine for 107 in their first matchup | 14.5 | 8000 | 1.81 |
| SEA | WR | DK Metcalf | Has more targets and air yards than Lockett over his last four games, but he will see 49ers’ top corner Charvarius Ward on the left side about 2/3 of the time. He did have seven for 55 in week 15. | 14.4 | 8800 | 1.64 |
| SF | TE | George Kittle | The Seahawks rank 32nd against opposing TEs. Kittle has seven TDs in his last four games, two of which came against Seattle in week 15 | 14.1 | 8200 | 1.72 |
| SEA | RB | Kenneth Walker | Played a season high 87% of the snaps and has three straight games going over 100 yards rushing. He will get opportunities and Seattle will continue to run the ball. However, the 49ers rank 1st against the rush and held him to 47 yards in week 15 | 13.9 | 8600 | 1.62 |
| SF | WR | Deebo Samuel | He is an extremely boom or bust player and I don’t think they will want to push him in the rain. The closer the game, the more touches he will have. You can expect 2-4 carries and 5-7 targets. | 13.5 | 7200 | 1.88 |
| SF | WR | Brandon Aiyuk | Aiyuk will likely see the most of star rookie corner Tariq Woolen (almost 50%) and was held to two receptions for 19 yards in week 15 | 12.2 | 7400 | 1.65 |
| SF | RB | Elijah Mitchell | Mitchell played 10 snaps last week, which resulted in five carries for 55 yards and two TDs. He is healthy and should see 7-12 carries against a bad defensive team against the run | 9.1 | 3800 | 2.39 |
| SF | DST | 49ers DST | We are all aware this is one of the best defenses in football. They held Seattle to 13 points in week 15 and seven points in week 2. | 8 | 5200 | 1.54 |
| SF | K | Robbie Gould | Has not missed a kick at home over his last seven games. He does have some weather to deal with, but even his XPs can add up | 8 | 4200 | 1.90 |
| SEA | K | Jason Myers | As a 10 point underdog, Seattle’s chances of kicking a field goal will dwindle as the game goes on. The rain will also play a factor | 7 | 4000 | 1.75 |
| SEA | TE | Noah Fant | Has not topped more than 42 receiving yards in any of his last seven games, in which six targets was his high. The 49ers allow the 7th fewest fantasy points to the position. He did score in their week 15 matchup, but it was a blown coverage on the last drive | 6.9 | 4400 | 1.57 |
| SF | WR | Jauan Jennings | With Deebo back healthy, Jennings will play about 1/3 of the game. He hasn’t had more than 6.6 fantasy points in any of his last six games when he had extended opportunity. He had three for 31 in week 15 against Seattle | 5.9 | 4600 | 1.28 |
| SEA | TE | Colby Parkinson | 80% of the snaps in consecutive weeks and had at least 36 yards in three straight games since Will Dissly was injured. One of the better values in this showdown | 5.6 | 1400 | 4.00 |
| SEA | DST | Seahawks DST | They are very cheap, which keeps them in play, but in two games against SF, they haven’t forced a turnover and only had one sack in each game | 5 | 3200 | 1.56 |
| SEA | WR | Dareke Young | Outplayed Treadwell last week with 24% of the snaps. Could be WR3 in a trail script | 4.1 | 200 | 20.50 |
| SEA | RB | Deejay Dallas | Questionable, but is the backup RB and receiving back. If this game gets out of hand, he could see a lot of playing time, but it seems Walker has even taken over the two minute offense | 3.9 | 1600 | 2.44 |
| SEA | WR | Laquon Treadwell | Should be playing from behind and have to throw more. He did only play five snaps in week 18 | 3.6 | 200 | 18.00 |
| SF | WR | RayRay McCloud | With Deebo, Aiyuk, and Jennings all healthy, his WR4 snaps and targets will be limited. Has had zero or one catch in 16 of 17 games | 3.5 | 2400 | 1.46 |
| SF | RB | Kyle Juszczyk | Plays about 50% of the snaps. In a rain game, he could see some easy passes out of the backfield | 3.3 | 1000 | 3.30 |
| SF | RB | Jordan Mason | He has not had a target this year and will be RB3. He had extra work in a blowout last week, but 2-4 carries at most | 2.6 | 2800 | 0.93 |
Best Values: E. Mitchell, C. Parkinson, D. Young
Less Of: J. Jennings, R. McCloud, B. Aiyuk, Myers
More Of: C. McCaffrey, T. Lockett, G. Kittle, DK Metcalf, B. Purdy, E. Mitchell, G. Smith
Prediction: 49ers 24-17
Core: McCaffrey, Kittle, Walker, Lockett or Metcalf
Bets:
- Kittle OVER 3.5 receptions (-160)
- Mitchell OVER 39.5 rush yards (-115)
Saturday Wildcard Showdown Game 2
Chargers @ Jaguars 8:30 PM EST
Chargers -2.5, o/u 47
I think this game lines up very well for the Chargers, even without Mike Williams. They are finally healthy on the defensive side of the ball: Derwin James, Joey Bosa, and Bryce Callahan. I especially like the Chargers’ ability to take away Evan Engram with the combo of Derwin James and Bryce Callahan. In addition, I like Callahan to slow down slot receiver Christian Kirk a bit. Lastly, Joey Bosa can make a huge impact by getting to Trevor Lawrence.
The Jaguars are at home and Trevor Lawrence has proven his grit. The game plan for the Jags will be to feature Travis Etienne, as the Chargers rank 26th against running backs. Lawrence will need to escape some pressure and make some plays with Zay or Marvin Jones, as those will be the best matchups. The Jaguars have also played three very easy opponents in the Titans, Texans, and Jets over their last three games. The Chargers have played a lot of close games, but I like them to pull this one out.
KEY SHOWDOWN NOTES:
- The Jaguars rank 31st against tight ends over their last nine games. Last week, Chig Okonkwu and Austin Hooper both had big days against the Jags’ D.
- The Chargers rank 3rd against QBs over their last six games, only allowing 12.8 fantasy points per game and now they get Joey Bosa back.
- Keenan Allen will see even more targets with Mike Williams ruled out, and he matches up with Tre Herndon in the slot.
- Palmer/Carter are great value plays. However, elite corner Tyson Campbell plays the right side of the defense. I expect it to be more of Carter, so I lean Palmer with the better matchup.
Key Injuries: OUT: M. Williams (WR). QUES: J. Agnew (WR), T. Lawrence (QB)
Weather: 45 degrees, 7-10 mph winds, 0% chance of rain
Passing Matchups:
- Chargers rank 7th, allowing 200.4 passing yards per game
- Jaguars rank 28th, allowing 238.5 passing yards per game
Rushing Matchups:
- Chargers rank 28th, allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game
- Jaguars rank 12th, allowing 114.8 rushing yards per game
Rankings:
| Team | Pos | Name | Notes | Projection | Price | Value |
| LAC | RB | Austin Ekeler | Ekeler has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game this season and has scored 18 touchdowns. He did struggle against the Jags in week 3, but his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and find the endzone make him a great play. The Jaguars have allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs (103 or 6.4 per game). His o/u is 5.5 and he had eight against them in week 3 | 20.2 | 11400 | 1.77 |
| LAC | QB | Justin Herbert | The Jags have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs this season (19.9) | 19.6 | 10800 | 1.81 |
| LAC | WR | Keenan Allen | Will be targeted even more with Mike Williams out. Has a great matchup in the slot against Tre Herndon | 18.9 | 9600 | 1.97 |
| JAX | QB | Trevor Lawrence | The Chargers rank 3rd against QBs over their last six games, only allowing 12.8 fantasy points per game and now they get Joey Bosa back. | 17.8 | 10200 | 1.75 |
| JAX | RB | Travis Etienne | The Chargers have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs. The Titans were tough to run against last week, but I like his volume to be where it was weeks 13-16. His prop is listed at 16.5 rushing attempts, so the volume should be there | 16.9 | 9000 | 1.88 |
| JAX | WR | Christian Kirk | He had six for 72 and scored in their week 3 matchup and he exploded last week against a bad Titan secondary. Bryce Callahan is a proven slot corner that will keep him limited | 11.8 | 8000 | 1.48 |
| LAC | WR | Josh Palmer | Without Mike Williams, Palmer has played at least 91% of the snaps. He should avoid Campbell and play on the opposite side, matched up with Darious Williams | 11.6 | 6600 | 1.76 |
| LAC | TE | Gerald Everett | The Jaguars rank 31st against tight ends over their last nine games. Last week, Chig Okonkwu and Austin Hooper both had big days against the Jags’ D. Mike Williams is out, which could open up even more opportunities. He has also scored in back to back games. His snap counts are down with McKitty, Parham, and Smartt all seeing action | 9.7 | 4800 | 2.02 |
| JAX | WR | Zay Jones | Had a big game in their last matchup in week 3. He will match up most with Asante Samuel Jr., who might be the best matchup for the Jags. Jerry Jeudy had a big day last week | 9.1 | 5400 | 1.69 |
| JAX | K | Riley Patterson | At least seven fantasy points in seven straight weeks | 8 | 3800 | 2.11 |
| LAC | DST | Chargers DST | Their defense is healthy and getting Bosa back can cause some turnovers | 7 | 4200 | 1.67 |
| LAC | K | Cam Dicker | He has had at least eight fantasy points in five of his last six games | 7 | 4000 | 1.75 |
| JAX | DST | Jaguars DST | This defense has played three really bad offenses in consecutive games. They have rattled off at least 12 fantasy points in five straight games, so you can’t rule them out at $3400 | 7 | 3400 | 2.06 |
| LAC | WR | DeAndre Carter | He will get some snaps from the slot, but will mainly match up with Tyson Campbell when he plays outside. He’s cheap enough to take a chance, but in weeks 12 and 13, without Williams and Allen active, he played the majority on the outside | 6.9 | 3000 | 2.30 |
| JAX | TE | Evan Engram | The Chargers rank 2nd against TEs since week 13. Derwin James is a tough matchup and even Bryce Callahan if they move Engram to the slot. There are a lot of plays I like more than him. | 6.5 | 6200 | 1.05 |
| JAX | WR | Marvin Jones | Matchup against Michael Davis, who has been playing very well, but Davis did allow a late TD to Courtland Sutton last week. | 5.3 | 2600 | 2.04 |
| LAC | RB | Joshua Kelley | In a playoff game, I don’t see them limiting Ekeler besides a few breathers. | 4.9 | 5000 | 0.98 |
| LAC | TE | Donald Parham | Played at least 35% of the snaps in three straight. See Everett for how bad the Jags have been against TEs. He has a chance and is a nice cheap option | 4.6 | 1000 | 4.60 |
| JAX | RB | JaMycal Hasty | Quietly had 49% of the snaps last week and 40% in week 17. He might gather 4-6 opportunities | 4.4 | 3200 | 1.38 |
| JAX | WR | Jamal Agnew | Questionable, and has only had one target in three consecutive weeks | 2.2 | 1600 | 1.38 |
Best Values: Z. Jones, M. Jones, J. Palmer, D. Carter
Less Of: E. Engram, J. Kelley, C. Kirk
More Of: T. Etienne, G. Everett, J. Herbert, A. Ekeler, C. Kirk, K. Allen, J. Palmer
Prediction: Chargers 26-23
Core: Herbert, Allen, Ekeler
GPP Plays: Everett, Palmer, Zay
Bets:
- Everett OVER 3.5 receptions
- Chargers -2.5
- K. Allen OVER 6.5 receptions